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With the in-depth implementation of large-scale economic stimulus policies and the release of a large amount of liquidity in ultra-low interest rates and quantitative easing monetary policies, international financial markets have become more stable, consumption and investment have begun to recover slowly, and the economy has ended in a free fall and gradually stabilized. . Among them, the decline of the US and British economies has slowed markedly, and the economies of Japan, Germany and France have resumed growth, and emerging and developing economies have generally been at the forefront of recovery.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and other institutions have improved the forecast of the world economy. The OECD believes that the global economic recession is over and the developed economies will resume growth in the third quarter. Among them, the United States, Germany, Japan and the Eurozone will see positive growth in the third quarter. In addition to Japan's possible repetition in the fourth quarter, other developed economies will continue to grow; emerging economies such as China will make a global economic recovery. Make a bigger contribution. The latest World Economic Outlook released by the IMF predicts that the world economy will shrink by 1.1% in 2009, which is lower than the previous forecast. In 2010, the global economic growth rate will reach 3.1%.
The global financial crisis and economic recession have hit world trade. According to the World Trade Organization (WTO), global trade volume fell by 40% in the first quarter of 2009. According to the customs data of various countries, in the first half of 2009, the trade in goods of the world's major trading countries and regions showed a sharp decline. Among them, the export volume of the EU, the United States, Japan and Germany decreased by 30.4%, 24.7%, 37.3% and 33.4% respectively over the same period of last year; the import volume decreased by 34.2%, 32.5%, 32.3% and 28.9% respectively. Although the international trade situation has improved since the second quarter, the decline has narrowed, but it is still double-digit. The WTO estimates that global trade volume will shrink by 10% in 2009, with developed countries falling by 14% and developing countries by 7%. The IMF expects global trade volume to decline by 11.9% in 2009, and world trade is expected to resume growth in 2010.
According to UNCTAD statistics, due to the financial crisis and economic recession, global foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in 2008 were US$1.7 trillion, down 14% year-on-year. In the first quarter of 2009, global FDI inflows fell by 44% year-on-year, with G20 inflows falling by 36% year-on-year and outflows falling by 42%. Global M&A activity continues to show signs of shrinking. According to MergeMarket, an international M&A consulting firm, global M&A totals and totals were the lowest in six years in the first half of 2009, with global M&A falling 47% and M&A down 43.3%. The United Nations expects global FDI to fall to $1.2 trillion in 2009, down 30-40%. It will rise to $1.4 trillion in 2010 and rise to $1.8 trillion in 2011, but it has not yet reached 2007 levels.
Table 1 Growth Trends of the World Economy and International Trade, 2007-2010 Unit: %
Note: The 2009 and 2010 data are predicted.
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, October 1, 2009.
The main issues worthy of attention in the current world economic and trade development are:
1. The tough twists and turns in the recovery of the world economy
At present, the world economy has stopped its downward trend and has begun to show signs of stabilization and recovery. The main reason is that governments have adopted large-scale fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate the results. The foundation for the recovery of the world economy is not stable, the momentum for economic independent growth is insufficient, and the recovery process It will be difficult and tortuous. Due to the different economic recovery processes in different countries, the focus of policy regulation is different, and there are obvious differences between countries regarding the exit of future policies. The IMF warned that although it is too early to withdraw, countries must begin to limit the spread of non-traditional stimulus policies, effectively reduce the central bank's assets and liabilities, and gradually tighten monetary policy. If the government intervenes too deeply and withdraws too late, it may lead to inflation. If the government withdraws too early and the pace is inconsistent, it will affect the world economic recovery. When the large-scale stimulus policies introduced by governments will withdraw and how to withdraw will become an important factor affecting the future of the world economy. How to strike a balance between promoting economic recovery and preventing inflation and ensuring a sustained and stable recovery of the world economy will be a severe test. The financial crisis has led to a sharp decline in the wealth of residents, and the savings rate has continued to rise, restricting the expansion of consumption. Due to the lack of new profit opportunities and the current severe overcapacity, new investment demand is unlikely to recover significantly in the short term. Therefore, even if the global economy recovers, the future growth rate will be slow, and it is not excluded from the middle. The IMF expects that the global economic growth rate will be slightly higher than 4.7% from 2010 to 2014, lower than the average level before the crisis.
2. High unemployment rate and inflation expectations coexist
The financial crisis has cast a huge shadow on the employment of all countries in the world. The number of unemployed has increased sharply and the employment situation has deteriorated. The US unemployment rate reached 9.8% in September, the highest in 26 years; the unemployment rate in the euro zone rose to 9.6% in August, the highest since the birth of the euro zone; Japan’s unemployment rate in September was 5.3%, also in a decade high; developing countries The employment situation is also not optimistic. The United Nations estimates that the number of unemployed people worldwide will reach 50 million between 2009 and 2010, and the unemployment rate of developed economies will be higher than 10% by 2010. The ILO estimates that it will take four to five years for the global employment rate to return to pre-crisis levels. This means that the world will face more serious unemployment problems in the next few years. After the financial crisis broke out, in order to stabilize the financial market and stimulate economic recovery, central banks in various countries have drastically lowered interest rates. The benchmark interest rates in the US, Eurozone and Japan fell to 0-0.25%, 1% and 0.1%, respectively, both hitting record lows. . Central banks in some countries and regions have also adopted unconventional quantitative easing monetary policies, directly injecting a large amount of liquidity into the market, driving a sharp rebound in international commodity prices such as crude oil, further enhancing the market's expectations for future inflation.
Table 2 Unemployment rate in developed economies from 2007 to 2010 Unit: %
Note: 2009 and 2010 are forecast values.
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, October 1, 2009.
3. International trade competition and protectionism intensify
After the international financial crisis, demand shrank sharply, and international trade experienced a serious decline, which intensified trade competition between countries. In the case of expanding domestic demand, some countries and regions have proposed to expand the economy to promote the rapid recovery of the economy. Even through the substantial depreciation of the local currency and the increase of various forms of subsidies, the competitiveness of domestic products will be improved, and every effort will be made to compete for the international market. Trade competition will be more intense. In order to promote the early recovery of the domestic economy, the major economies will further enhance their self-sufficiency and will give priority to solving domestic employment and industrial development issues, and continue to introduce various trade restrictions and protection measures. Trade protectionism is becoming a hindrance to the recovery of world economic trade. A major threat. According to the WTO report, the G20 introduced 91 new potential protectionist measures in just five months from April to August. According to World Bank statistics, since the outbreak of the financial crisis, 17 of the G20 countries have launched about 78 trade protectionist measures, of which 47 have been implemented. The current global economy is in a critical period of stabilization and recovery, and resisting all forms of trade protectionism is more urgent than ever.
Second, the economic prospects of major countries and regions
In the first quarter of 2009, the US economy fell 6.4% year-on-year, the largest decline in nearly 30 years. In the second quarter, the decline was 0.7%, and the decline was sharply narrowed by 5.7 percentage points from the first quarter. The third quarter increased by 3.5%, the first increase after four consecutive quarters of decline. The US economic recovery was better than expected, mainly due to a series of US economic stimulus plans and unprecedented monetary and fiscal interventions. However, as consumer spending remains weak, the strength and sustainability of future recovery remains to be seen. First, weak demand will continue to weigh on output growth. Second, the economic recession has ended, but the job market is still weak. The US unemployment rate is expected to hit 10% in the first quarter of 2010 and slowly fall to 9.5% by the end of 2010. The IMF expects the US unemployment rate to be 9.3% in 2009 and 10.1% in 2010. In addition, the sharp increase in the federal deficit has also become an obstacle to the accelerated recovery of the economy in the future. The IMF expects the US economy to grow 1.5% in 2010 after shrinking 2.7% in 2009.
The Eurozone Eurozone economy fell into recession in the third quarter of 2008 and continued to decline by 2.5% in the first quarter of 2009. Thanks to the large-scale economic stimulus plan, including the “new car for new car†plan, the economic slowdown in the euro zone slowed significantly in the second quarter. Economic indicators such as manufacturing orders, purchasing managers' indices, and exports all showed good momentum. The economic pillars of the euro zone Germany and France regained economic growth in the second quarter. The European Commission expects that the euro zone economy as a whole can grow in the third quarter, thus officially out of recession. However, as the financial industry is still fragile, the impact of the crisis on the labor market and government finances has not yet fully manifested. The real estate market in some member states is still undergoing adjustment, and the road to economic recovery in the euro zone is unlikely to be flat. In addition, differences in the exit strategy of the euro zone countries may also affect the future economic growth rate. If Germany takes the lead in implementing the exit plan, and France and other countries continue to insist on stimulating economic plans, the euro zone economic recovery may face setback risks. In terms of leading the low-carbon economy, if we can establish investment and tax incentives covering the entire continent to encourage the use of clean energy, improve energy efficiency and promote low-carbon technology innovation, it will help accelerate the recovery of the euro zone economy. The IMF expects the euro zone economy to grow by 0.3% in 2010.
Japan’s exports and investment are the two drivers of Japan’s economic growth in the past few years. However, after the outbreak of the international financial crisis, the Japanese economy deteriorated sharply from the fourth quarter of 2008 to the first quarter of 2009, down 13.1% and 11.7% respectively. Driven by the government's fiscal stimulus package, private consumption and government spending began to grow in the second quarter of 2009, and industrial production also bottomed out, driving economic growth by 3.7%, the first positive growth in five quarters. Among them, the contribution of external demand to the economic growth of the quarter was 1.6 percentage points, and it was the first time since the fifth quarter that it turned from negative to positive. However, Japan’s growth model of relying on external demand may become a constraint to the future economic recovery. Once the external environment tightens again, the Japanese economy will inevitably repeat. At the same time, the deterioration of employment and excess equipment will remain the main obstacle to the recovery of Japan’s economic autonomy. The IMF expects Japan's GDP to fall by 5.4% in 2009, the largest decline in developed economies. In the longer term, the Democratic Party, which won an overwhelming victory in the general election, advocated encouraging consumption and SME development, reducing government regulation, promoting cutting-edge technology, strengthening regional economic alliances and cooperation with the United States and Europe, and is expected to inject future Japanese economy. New vitality.
The international financial crisis in emerging markets and developing economies and the world economic recession have had a significant impact on emerging markets and developing economies, especially in countries and regions that rely heavily on exports. As developed countries' economies stop falling and recover, primary product prices rebound and government stimulus policies gradually take effect, and most emerging markets and developing countries' economies have taken the lead in recovery. In the second quarter of 2009, the economic growth rates of China, India and Brazil reached 7.9%, 6.1% and 6% respectively. After the Russian economy contracted by 10.9% in the second quarter, the manufacturing industry showed signs of rebounding in August. The IMF expects that the growth rate of emerging markets and developing countries will be 1.7% in 2009 and 5.1% in 2010.
At present, the test for the economic development of emerging markets and developing countries is that the foundation of the recovery of the world economy is not stable, and there are still many uncertain and unstable factors. Once the recovery encounters setbacks, it will bring shocks to the export-oriented developing countries. Second, the pace of withdrawal of stimulus policies from various countries is inconsistent. The spread between countries will widen, which will stimulate the massive flow of international speculative funds, triggering sharp fluctuations in the exchange rate and international financial markets, and negatively affecting the economic and financial stability of developing countries. Third, whether the reform of the international financial and economic order can fully reflect the reasonable demands of the developing countries and create a fair and equitable environment will greatly affect the long-term sustainable development of the developing countries.
I. Current situation of the world economy and trade