Summary Summary: This week, the nickel volatility fell first, then rebounded strongly. On Friday afternoon, the nickel price rose by about $500/ton from last Friday. The ex-factory price of Jinchuan Electrolytic Nickel was raised by 2,500 yuan/ton, and the spot nickel price in the market rose by about 2,300-2,400 yuan/ton. It is expected that the short-term nickel price will still be able to...
Summary: This week, the nickel volatility fell first, then rebounded strongly. On Friday afternoon, the nickel price rose by about $500/ton from last Friday's close. The ex-factory price of Jinchuan Electrolytic Nickel was raised by 2,500 yuan/ton, and the spot nickel price in the market rose by about 2,300-2,400 yuan/ton. It is expected that the short-term nickel price will remain strong, and it is expected that Lun Nickel will trade at 14250-14900 USD/ton.

I. Analysis and prediction of the trend of nickel

1. Review of the trend of nickel

This week, the nickel fell first and then rose, and the lowest return on Wednesday to 13,364 US dollars / ton, and then rebounded strongly, close to 14,300 US dollars / ton on Thursday, and further rebounded to 14,500 US dollars / ton on Friday afternoon, compared with last Friday's close $500/ton. Compared with last Friday, this week's nickel stocks have changed little. This week, other metal varieties such as copper and copper also achieved considerable gains.


This week, the metal market rose, mainly due to two factors, China's economic data and the US dollar index. In July, China's import and export trade data was strong, and economic indicators such as PPI and industrial added value also improved significantly, boosting the prospects of industrial metals and driving prices to rise sharply. The continued decline in the US dollar index has also boosted the attractiveness of dollar-denominated metals, mainly in the first half of the market.

2. Lun nickel trend forecast

The series of data shows that the Chinese economy is indeed showing signs of recovery; in addition, the commodity market is gradually diluting the impact of the Fed exiting QE. The current base metals market is operating in an optimistic environment and will remain strong in the short term. This week, the price of metal rose, and more reaction was to the excessive pessimistic correction of the previous market. Its sustainability is still doubtful. Although China's economic data has improved, its strength and sustainability need to be verified. The extent of current economic improvement is still Not enough to make the industrial metal demand outlook change effectively, so investors are advised to stay awake during the rise. On the technical side, most of the indicators support the further rise of the nickel, and remain strong next week or at 14250-14900 US dollars / ton.

Second, the domestic nickel market

1. Electrolytic nickel market
This week, Jinchuan Group adjusted the ex-factory price of electrolytic nickel four times. It was raised by 500 yuan/ton on Monday and lowered by 500 yuan/ton on Wednesday. It was raised by 1,000 yuan/ton and 1,500 yuan/ton on Thursday and Friday respectively. After the adjustment, the ex-factory price of Jinchuan Electrolytic Nickel Sheet rose by RMB 2,500/ton from last Friday. This week, the spot nickel price in the Shanghai market rose by 2,300-2,400 yuan / ton, and the highest price on Friday was about 3,000 yuan / ton higher than Wednesday. In the first half of the week, the spot nickel market was still dull. As the price of nickel rose, the atmosphere became active in the second half of the week. However, after the nickel price continued to rise on Friday, traders generally had a high fear of chasing, and the willingness to chase was not strong. Although the inquiry was positive, the actual purchase was small.
2. Domestic ferronickel market

This week, the market released positive news overall, driving the strong rise of LME nickel metal. The price of ferronickel has been affected by the increase. The major steel mills have continuously raised the purchase price, and there is a plan to stock up. It is understood that today's Jiugang has raised the latest purchase price of high-nickel iron to 970 yuan/nickel (to the factory including tax) Price) Other steel mills have also raised the purchase price with the leader. The market is bullish, but the manufacturers with goods are reluctant to sell, and the goods are waiting to rise.

This week's content of 6-8% of the nickel pig iron mainstream factory price of 930-940 yuan / nickel, the average price of 935 yuan / nickel. The content of 4-6% of nickel-based pig iron is 930-950 yuan/nickel, and the average price is 940 yuan/nickel. The mainstream ex-factory price of 1.5-2.0% low-nickel pig iron is 2500-2550 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of high-nickel pig iron is 10-14%/nickel. It is expected that the short-term ferronickel price is expected to continue to rise, attacking 1,000 yuan / nickel.

3. Domestic nickel ore market

This week, the price of nickel ore was steady and small. Due to the rising price of downstream ferronickel, the nickel ore market was also booming. The market sentiment was significantly warmer, buying inquiries increased, and inventories decreased compared with last week. As of Friday, 0.9-1.1% of the price of nickel ore is 260-280 yuan / wet tons, 1.4-1.6% grade of nickel ore is 160-240 yuan / wet tons, 1.8-1.9% of the taste of nickel ore is 340-390 yuan / nickel. However, some miners said that they will wait and see the market outlook for the time being. When the market is really improving, they are choosing to supply. It is expected that the nickel ore market will be more likely to rise in the next week.

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