August 6 Steel Market Forecast

First, the macro news briefing 1, the Federal Reserve Fisher: The Fed is closer to the beginning of reducing QE. Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher said on Monday that after the US Labor Department announced the July non-farm employment report last Friday, the Fed has been closer to reducing the scale of the "quantitative easing" program.

2. The Eurozone’s comprehensive PMI reached a record high of two years in July. According to data released by Markit, a financial information service provider, on the 5th, the final value of the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in the Eurozone’s July consolidated market was 50.5, the highest since August 2011 and the first time since 18 months. To the expansion of the interval. The final value of the service purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 49.8, which was the highest since January 2012.

3. The Central Bank issued a renewal of 183.8 billion 3-year central bank bills in July. The two-way operation ensures neutral policies. According to data from the Central Government Debt Register and Settlement Corporation, the central bank issued a non-public issuance of two-year three-year central bank bills issued in July 2010. This suggests that the central bank's innovation in liquidity management methods of “locking up and shortening short-term” shows that the overall thinking of the central bank’s monetary policy operation is to maintain a reasonable and moderate liquidity, and that the future monetary policy orientation is still relatively neutral.

4. Xu Shaoshi, director of the National Development and Reform Commission, insists on real estate control policies. Promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market. Adhere to the real estate regulatory policies. Increase the promotion of the construction of affordable housing projects, speed up the construction of ordinary commercial housing, and support the first set of residential homes for residents.

5. The report of the International Energy Agency suggested that the four-way emission reduction technology that does not hurt the economy. They are "significant energy savings in the terminal sector", "restriction of low-efficiency coal-fired power plants", "reduction of methane emissions in oil and gas production," and "reduction of fossil fuel subsidies." If the industrial sector can further popularize the “lowest energy performance standards”, globally it is possible to realize more than 400 million tons of carbon reduction per year in this area, and power saving itself means reducing the cost of energy consumption.

Second, the relevant disk summary US stock market fell slightly from historical highs on Monday, Dallas Fed ** Fisher said the Fed has been close to the timing of exit quantitative easing. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 46.23 points, to close at 15612.13 points, a drop of 0.30%; Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 2.53 points to close at 1707.14 points, a decrease of 0.15%. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold prices for December delivery fell by 8.1 dollars to close at 1302.4 dollars per ounce. The price of crude oil for September delivery fell by US$0.38 to settle at US$106.56 per barrel. The closing price of LME copper in the venue was 6,975 US dollars/ton, down 30 dollars/ton from the previous trading day.

Third, the billet price trend early on the 6th: Yesterday, Tangshan general billet stable, Changli Hongxing this morning / Anfeng 3090, Tangshan Xinglong / Guoyi 3090 are tax-included factory; traders naked price of about 2982.

Fourth, the ore price trend Yesterday the domestic ore market remained stable and hoped to rise. At present, most domestic steel mills have sufficient iron ore stocks and have a general willingness to purchase. The mining concessionaires still have confidence in the powder market and their quotation is firm. Traders' willingness to accept high prices is low and they are cautious. The mainstream of the imported ore market has been operating smoothly, with merchant quotes rising and market transactions being normal. The mainstream market price of 66% sour flour in Tangshan is priced at 1,030 yuan. The current quotation of 63.5/63% of Indian ore mines in the foreign mining market is around US$120. Tianjin Port's 63.5% Indian ore price is 920 yuan/ton, and Qingdao Port's 61.5% PB ore price is 890 yuan/ton. On the previous trading day, Platts 62%, $130.25, +$0.50.

Fifth, the price of coke prices Yesterday, the domestic coke prices stabilized. The steel mills in northern China opened on Monday to accept the price increase request of coking enterprises, and only a small part of them still insist on the original price, but it will not last long. Tangshan is now a mainstream 1350-1370 to the factory, after the second-level rise in the 1300-1330. is still not pricing. Due to a slight fall in the steel market, there is little possibility that coke will continue to rise, and there is a high probability that the coke will remain stable after rising. Now the primary metallurgical coke in Shanxi Province is 1250 yuan/ton; the quasi-class metallurgical coke is tax-included at the price of 1160 yuan; the Hebei Provincial Handan District is the secondary metallurgical coke at 1160 yuan; the secondary metallurgical coke in Huaibei region is tax-included at the price of 1,220 yuan; Metallurgical coke factory tax price 1220 yuan.

6. The coiled hot coil closed at the close of August 5. The closing price of 25mm rebar in the Beijing market was 3,540 yuan per ton, which was 30 yuan more per ton than the previous day; the rebar in the Shanghai market was 3510 yuan per ton, which was higher than the previous day's price. Rising 10 yuan / ton; Guangzhou market three rebar is 3770 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous day's price.

On August 5th, the closing price of 5.5mmQ235 hot-rolled coil in Shanghai market was 3620 yuan/ton, which was the same as the previous day's price; the closing price of hot coil in Tianjin market was 3520 yuan/ton, which was the same as the previous day's price; the closing price of hot money in Lecong market was 3700. Yuan/ton, the price rose 10 yuan/ton from the previous day.

Seven, screw analysis of large groups August 5th, thread ** main contract 1401 higher than the previous day's settlement price open to 3680 yuan opening, after the opening shock, the highest touch 3688 yuan, the lowest probe to 3676 yuan, the final closing At 3,685 yuan, it rose by 17 yuan over the previous trading day and finally closed at the Yang Xian. The volume of 965,688 contracts has shrunk compared to the previous trading day, with 1,359,146 positions held, reducing 31,156 contracts. It is estimated that today's price pressure will be RMB 3,700/ton, with support at RMB 3,665/ton.

On August 5th, the main contract of the hot coil electronic disk RB1310 opened at 3,705 yuan. After the opening, it oscillated. The highest touched 3,707 yuan, the lowest reached 3,692 yuan, and finally closed at 3,693 yuan, down 7 yuan from the previous trading day. Small Yin line. Volume of 138,560 contracts has shrunk compared with the previous trading day, with 19,790 lots of hand positions, a decrease of 1040 lots. It is estimated that today's price pressure point will be 3,706 yuan/ton and the support point will be 3,687 yuan/ton.

Eight, spot price forecast is expected today in Beijing market 25mm three rebar prices rose 20 yuan / ton, to 3560 yuan / ton; Shanghai market three rebar offer rose 10 yuan / ton, to 3510 yuan / ton; Guangzhou market three Grade rebar market price rose 10 yuan / ton, quoted at 3,780 yuan / ton.

It is expected that the mainstream quotation for 5.5mmQ235 hot-rolled coils in the Shanghai market will be stable at around RMB 3,620/t. The market price for hot-rolled coils in the Tianjin market will be stable at RMB 3,520/t; the quotation for hot-rolled coils in the Lecong market will be stable at around RMB 3,700/t.