The environment of the machinery industry is still tight in the second half of the year. At present, the industrial added value growth rate and investment growth rate closely related to the machinery industry have confirmed the downward trend. It is expected that the property market will continue to be in the inventory accumulation stage, and the overall operating environment of the machinery industry is tightening. The economic restructuring, the appreciation of the renminbi, and rising labor costs will push the internal structure of the machinery industry to serve the transformation of traditional heavy industries and export-oriented industries to serve emerging industries, and maintain the forecast of the machinery industry's annual growth rate of around 20%.

Construction machinery has reached the peak of this round of prosperity. In the first five months, construction machinery increased by 59.5% year-on-year, and the main products achieved overall growth. The increase of scrapers, excavators and loaders exceeded 50%. We judge that the construction machinery has reached the peak of the current round of prosperity. The slowdown in the second half of the year will be a high probability event. The annual sales value of construction machinery is expected to increase by about 25%.

Orders in the machine tool industry have shown signs of slowing down. In the first five months, the machine tool industry increased by 40.7% year-on-year, of which the gold cutting machine tool increased by 25.95%, the CNC metal cutting machine tool increased by 54.34%, and the numerical control system equipment increased by 105.96%. From structural recovery to full recovery. However, some enterprises have reported that orders have slowed down, and industry sales are expected to increase by about 20% for the whole year.

The demand for metallurgical equipment in heavy mining machinery is sluggish. In the first five months, heavy mining machinery increased by 23.3% year-on-year, of which export output value was 21.05 billion yuan, of which mining special equipment increased by 19.09%, metal smelting equipment increased by 7.81%, and metal rolling equipment increased by -7.78%. At present, the order quantity of metallurgical equipment has dropped significantly, and the growth of metal smelting equipment and metal rolling equipment has been sluggish. We expect that the demand for heavy mining machinery may return to a downward trend with the domestic economy falling in the second half of the year.

The demand for traditional power equipment is not strong. In the first five months, steam turbine generators increased by 21.09%, power station boilers increased by 11.43%, transformers increased by -3.87%, and high-voltage switchgears increased by 5.17%. The demand for primary transmission equipment showing traditional thermal power generation equipment, transformers and high-voltage switches is not strong. As the installed capacity of new power in China peaks, it is expected that the overall power equipment in the future will not be greatly improved.

Emerging industries are vibrant. Compared with the decline of the traditional machinery industry, some emerging industries such as nuclear power, offshore wind power, rail transit, energy conservation and emission reduction, smart grid and other emerging industries are full of vitality. The photovoltaic and hydropower policies have also sent positive signals and will remain the next stage. Investment focus.

Industry rating and risk factors. Maintaining the industry's “Neutral” rating, the sub-industry recommends focusing on emerging industries such as nuclear power, offshore wind power, rail transit, energy conservation and emission reduction, and smart grid.

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