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The PMI index continues to be above the boom, indicating that China's economy has entered a period of steady growth in November. From the trend of the past years, the trend in November is the same as in 2005. The coincidence behind the coincidence reflects that the current economic environment is similar to that at the time.
Different industries have different degrees of prosperity
In November, the new order index, production index, and supplier delivery time index were basically the same as last month; the backlog index, finished goods inventory index, raw material inventory index, and purchase price index increased; new export order index, purchase volume index, The import index and the employee index have declined.
From the HSBC's November China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (formerly the CLSA Purchasing Managers Index), the PMI continued to rise in November and hit a new high in 20 months, indicating that the SMEs are still recovering. Among them. According to reports, HSBC PMI was 55.7, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month.
Among the 20 manufacturing industries in the country, only the paper manufacturing, cultural and educational sporting goods manufacturing, petroleum processing and coking, and beverage manufacturing industries have PMIs below 50%, and the remaining 17 industries are above 50%. In particular, the tobacco products industry, clothing and footwear manufacturing and fur and down products industries are the highest, both exceeding 60%.
In terms of product types, raw materials and energy, intermediate goods, consumer goods and manufactured goods are all above 50%. Among them, the production of finished products is the highest, reaching more than 55%.
In terms of industries, although some industries have declined, the industry's general recovery trend has basically taken shape. At present, among the 20 manufacturing industries in the country, the PMI of 19 industries in October reached more than 50%, and it fell to 17 in November. Among them, the textile and clothing industry was affected by the rebound in exports, and the prosperity rose for three consecutive months. The ferrous metal and metal manufacturing industry also stabilized at a high level. The differentiation of the industry's prosperity indicates that after the economic rebound, some industries are affected by factors such as overcapacity. Still need to adjust the structure. Industry insiders expect that the prosperity of various industries will continue to differentiate in the coming months, and the overall characteristics of the normal economic period.
Inventory and price rebound
The production index for November was 59.4%, the highest since May last year, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that production activity has stabilized after a continuous rebound and is expected to remain in this state in the coming months.
In November, the finished goods inventory index was 45.4%, up 1 percentage point from the previous month; the raw material inventory index also rose, to 51.4%, up 1.5 percentage points from the previous month. In November, the inventory of finished products and raw materials both rose, indicating that inventory pressure has recovered, and the third destocking has yet to be further carried out.
In November, the purchase price index was 63.4%, up 6.5 percentage points from the previous month, and rebounded again after falling back in the previous two months. In terms of industries, only 20% of the 20 industries are less than 50%, and the remaining 19 industries are above 50%, 11 industries are higher than 60%, and 5 industries are higher than 70%. In terms of product types, raw materials and energy, intermediate products, consumer goods and manufactured goods types are all high, reaching about 60%. Among them, the intermediate category enterprises have the highest purchase price index, close to 70%.
Short-term foreign trade callback
In November, the new export order index was 53.6%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous month. Among the 20 industries, 13 industries led by wood processing and furniture manufacturing, food processing and manufacturing are higher than 50%, and the two industries headed by more than 60%. From the regional perspective, the east, middle and west are both higher than 50%; the middle is lower, slightly higher than 50%.
The import index for November was 52.2%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. Among the 20 industries, 10 industries including clothing and footwear manufacturing and fur and down products, non-metallic mineral products, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry are higher than 50%. Among them, clothing and footwear manufacturing and fur down products are the highest, reaching more than 60%.
The new export order index has fallen back, indicating that the process of export recovery is not as fast as expected. However, from the data of the Canton Fair, export orders should rebound significantly in the spring of next year. In terms of industries, new export orders for food, textile and ferrous metal processing industries rose for three consecutive months, benefiting significantly from export recovery.
The import index fell slightly, reflecting that domestic demand began to stabilize after a high-speed rise. The industry believes that the short-term correction in November is difficult to change the expectations of foreign trade recovery.
Input-type inflation affects initial display
Judging from the purchase price index reflecting the rising trend of raw material prices, the index rebounded sharply by 6.5 percentage points this month after a slight decline in two consecutive months. From the feedback of enterprises, 34.0% reflected the price increase, up 5 percentage points from the previous month. The industry believes that this is related to the large fluctuations in international commodity prices in November. External input inflation will formally affect domestic industrial product prices in the near future, while PPI and CPI may show a rapid rise after the turning point.
Judging from the macroeconomic sentiment index, China's economy has entered a stable growth range. The future trend is expected to accelerate on the one hand due to the base effect last year. On the other hand, it will be affected by factors such as weak investment, slow recovery of exports and stable consumption. The situation.
The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing recently announced that China's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for November was 55.2%, which was the same as last month and was above the boom for nine consecutive months. Judging from the published data, the current economy has continued its positive trend in recent months, but in the short term, it lacks the momentum to further increase significantly. Therefore, in the coming period, the economic recovery will gradually stabilize.