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The acceleration of urbanization guarantees the growth of domestic demand for machinery. According to the research of Shenwan Strategy Department, 4 trillion infrastructure investment, affordable housing construction and real estate regulation, as well as income distribution reform and regional industrial transfer ensure that China will be in the stage of urbanization acceleration in the next 10 years. The acceleration of urbanization will certainly drive the continuation of infrastructure investment and housing construction, which creates a good domestic demand environment for the machinery industry to maintain demand growth.
The superimposed area of ​​mechanical import substitution is concentrated at the upper end. After analyzing the import rate replacement index of the mechanical sector, we believe that most of the complete machinery of the mechanical sector has already completed import substitution, and in the future, it can only share the single-engine drive with increased domestic demand. The basic accessories, machine tools and some engineering machinery are still in the acceleration period of import substitution, and will share the two-wheel drive of domestic demand growth and import substitution in the future.
Pay attention to import substitution of sub-products and share excess returns. Based on the logical analysis of the excess returns from import substitution and the segmentation of the mechanical sector, we believe that future mechanical segments can provide excess revenue products focused on valves, bearings, pumps, gears, couplings and fasteners in the field of basic components. Excavators and bulldozers for high-end heavy-duty CNC machine tools and construction machinery in the field of machine tools. Investors are advised to pay attention to the leading companies in the segmented products and share the excess returns.
The replacement of domestic demand growth stack provides excess returns. Through the research on the Japanese mechanical equipment sector from 1956 to 1986 and the import substitution process of China's construction machinery sector from 2003 to 2008, we draw two conclusions: 1. The expansion of the domestic demand market will stimulate technological progress and gradually achieve import substitution; The superposition of import substitution and domestic demand growth will bring excess returns to the sector.