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Terminal demand drives material price increases
China's solar cell production will double in 2010
PV companies are still increasing capacity expansion
The rise in polysilicon prices stems from the unprecedented demand for downstream solar modules. According to market research firm iSuppli, global PV installed capacity will increase to 14.2GW this year, a 97.2% increase from the 7.2GW in 2009. The reporter learned from the information released by the German Federal Network Office in late July that the country's new installation capacity in the first half of this year exceeded 3GW, which is close to the 3.8GW installation last year. Correspondingly, as the world's largest solar cell producer, China's PV production and sales will also appear blowout this year. Zhou Tao, a new energy analyst at Great Wall Securities, told reporters that China's solar cell production will reach 8GW this year, up from 4GW in 2009. Doubled; in the second quarter of this year, there was a wave of rising prices for solar modules.
“Before the price of polysilicon rose, the price of batteries and components has started to rise slightly.†Zhan Yuanqing, director of the Enterprise Management Center of Jiangsu Greenbaoer Photovoltaic Co., Ltd., said in an interview with China Electronics News that “the serious shortage of production capacity is The main reason for the rise in solar cell prices.†The reporter learned that Chinese PV companies have all pre-sold production capacity this year. In the face of market demand that is in short supply, Chinese PV companies have accelerated the pace of capacity expansion. According to Yuan Qing, there will be about 300 solar cell production lines with an annual capacity of 25MW in August this year. These are all projects launched last year; By this time next year, 300 production lines will be put into production. In other words, the annual production capacity of Chinese PV companies will increase by 15GW in the two years from 2009 to 2011.
The fluctuation of the price of terminal products also affected the upstream link. Jiang Xingxian, deputy general manager of Changzhou Lingerhui Optoelectronic Materials Co., Ltd. told reporters that the prices of silicon wafers and silicon rods have also risen to a certain extent, and finally passed to polysilicon materials. A sales manager in a silicon wafer processing company in Jiangsu told reporters that although the current price of polysilicon is still far below the highest price before the international financial crisis, the market sentiment seems to have returned to 2007.
The rise in polysilicon prices also contains certain contingency in its inevitability. According to Jiang Xingxian, Japan's Mitsubishi's polysilicon production equipment has recently been shut down for maintenance, and the German Wacker Company has announced that its production capacity has been sold before 2012. These two news provide an opportunity for polysilicon companies to increase their selling prices. "The rise in polysilicon prices is also a process of balancing the interests of all links in the photovoltaic industry chain." Jiang Xingxian said.
Polysilicon imports will still exceed half
The amount of polysilicon imported in the first half of the year has been equivalent to that of last year.
More than half of the polysilicon is still imported
In 2009, 40% of the world's solar cells were produced in China; this year's PV market boom has once again widened the gap between supply and demand for photovoltaic raw materials. The reporter learned that from January to June this year, China's total imports of polysilicon was 19,330 tons, which is close to the import volume of last year. Zhou Tao predicts that battery shipments will be flat in the second half of this year, and domestic polysilicon production will increase in the second half of the year. Therefore, the number of polysilicon imports will decrease in the second half of the year.
According to Lu Jinbiao, deputy general manager of Jiangsu Zhongneng Silicon Technology Development Co., Ltd., the company produced more than 5,000 tons of polysilicon from January to May this year. At present, Jiangsu Zhongneng's monthly output has exceeded 1,500 tons. The goal is to produce 16,000 tons of polysilicon. It is understood that Jiangsu Zhongneng's polysilicon production for the whole year last year was 7,500 tons, and this year it will double its output again.
"This year, China's polysilicon production is expected to hit 30,000 tons." Lu Jinbiao said. At present, the consumption of polysilicon in 1MW batteries is 7 tons to 8 tons, and the leading companies in technology can reach 6.5 tons. If the calculation is based on the consumption of 8 tons / MW and the annual output of 8 GW, the demand for polysilicon in China's photovoltaic industry this year is about 64,000 tons, and more than half of the polysilicon needs to rely on imports.
Compared with international giants, China's polysilicon enterprises are relatively scattered, which is not conducive to the improvement of competitiveness. “The scale of China's polysilicon enterprises is too small, which makes it difficult to meet the demand of the photovoltaic industry.†Zhan Yuanqing said, “A production line with a planned production capacity of 3,000 tons usually has a capacity of only 1,000 tons in the first phase of production. Only 500 to 600 tons, or even only 300 tons. European and American companies often expand on a scale of 10,000 tons."
Price rise will not last
Solar panel prices have curbed rising momentum
The photovoltaic market maintains high growth and needs to open up new hot market
However, many people in the industry do not seem to think that polysilicon prices will continue to rise. Lu Jinbiao said that the current price increase is only the fluctuation of the spot price of polysilicon, and the price of long-term orders has not changed much. Jiang Xingxian also believes that the rise is not a long-term trend. He said: "In July this year, the price of polysilicon market was about 400 yuan / kilogram, and now it is about 10%, reaching 450 yuan / kilogram. There is no incentive to continue to rise because The price of photovoltaic modules has begun to fall." Zhou Tao also believes that the price of solar modules will definitely fall in the third quarter of this year.
The reason why the industry is cautious about the PV market in the second half of this year, an important reason is that the German government has lowered the feed-in tariff subsidy from July 1 this year. In the first half of this year, the popularity of the German PV market was largely related to this policy expectation. Under the influence of interests, the Germans who are known for their rigorous personality are no less enthusiastic than the Eastern people. According to the data released by the German Federal Network Office, in the first half of this year, the number of applications for solar system installation projects in Germany totaled 135,000, of which 50,000 were only in June. In addition, from January to May this year, the installation capacity of solar modules in Germany. It is 1.7 GW, and the installation capacity in one month in June is equivalent to the total amount in the previous five months.
Although most people in the industry believe that the German government still has profit margins after PV subsidies are lowered, the PV market will not be affected too much in the long run, but the “second boots†of the policy have already landed, due to market enthusiasm in the first half of the year. Serious overdrafts, the German market in the second half of this year, "refresh" is foreseeable. Fortunately, the photovoltaic market will not rely solely on Germany. The photovoltaic applications of the United States, Japan, and China are growing rapidly, and it is expected to become a new hot spot in the photovoltaic market.
China's polysilicon enterprises are also seeking development space outside the photovoltaic industry. "Electronic level" is the goal that many enterprises aim at. In a sense, this is also a "return" of the polysilicon industry. At present, China's integrated circuit industry's annual demand for polysilicon is about 3,000 tons, but because domestic polysilicon production and silicon wafer processing technology can not meet the requirements of integrated circuit advanced technology, it can only rely on imports. "At present, Jiangsu Zhongneng's electronic grade polysilicon products have been tested in some manufacturers. We plan to use a production line to produce electronic grade polysilicon in the future." Lu Jinbiao said.
Just as the polysilicon "overcapacity theory" was gradually forgotten, in the middle of 2010, China's polysilicon industry seems to have entered the "shock era." It is reported that from May to June this year, the price of solar grade polysilicon rose by 30% in one month. Some even predicted that the price of polysilicon would exceed 550 yuan/kg this year.