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Shale gas investment has drawn a significant number of non-energy sector companies into the bidding process for shale gas blocks, as they aim to enter the energy industry. However, industry insiders suggest that profitability from these investments in China is likely to be realized only between 2021 and 2030. Despite the growing interest, the lack of established channels for transferring shale gas mining rights remains a challenge. This highlights the need for improved policies that facilitate the circulation of exploration blocks and support long-term investment in projects requiring hundreds of millions of yuan.
The "12th Five-Year" development goals for shale gas have proven difficult to meet. Industry experts point out that many companies view shale gas as an opportunity to break through the traditional energy monopolies. Yet, behind the enthusiasm, there is skepticism about the short-term returns. Some believe that the targets set under the "12th Five-Year Plan" may not be achieved on time.
Since 2009, the Ministry of Land and Resources, local geological survey departments, and oil companies have conducted over 129 shale gas drilling operations, with more than 23 square kilometers tested and over 100,000 square meters of areas evaluated. Four trial operations were carried out, and by 2012, the output reached approximately 25 million cubic meters.
In 2012, several resource evaluation wells achieved commercial production, and key technologies for shale gas development were largely mastered. By the end of the first quarter of this year, China had invested over 7 billion yuan in shale gas exploration, with more than 80 drilling operations, over 20 horizontal wells, and high-yield wells in Sichuan and Chongqing. In 2012, 15 million cubic meters of shale gas were sold via the natural gas pipeline network, totaling 30 million cubic meters cumulatively.
According to CNPC, achieving the 6.5 billion cubic meter target for 2015 under the "12th Five-Year Plan" is now more challenging. The accurate assessment of China's shale gas resources requires time, and the development of mature technologies will take some years. Additionally, building the necessary infrastructure, cultivating the consumer market, and establishing a property rights market are still ongoing processes, making it difficult to assess the economic viability of shale gas extraction.
Establishing a clear property rights transfer channel is essential. While the future of shale gas looks promising, experts advise focusing on mastering resource reserves, developing supporting technologies, and nurturing the market before rushing into large-scale industrialization. It is expected to take 5 to 10 years before shale gas can reach large-scale commercial production.
Currently, the bidding process is not fully developed. Without proper exit mechanisms, investors remain concerned. CNPC suggests that if a company decides not to proceed with further mining, there should be appropriate options for them to withdraw. This would involve creating a robust market for transferring shale gas rights, ensuring smooth continuous investment and reducing concerns among enterprises.
Looking at the results of previous shale gas bidding rounds, state-owned enterprises have dominated. In the second round, 17 out of 19 blocks were won by state-owned companies, including coal power firms and local energy or geological system enterprises. Only two private companies managed to win bids out of the 83 participants. According to Yahua Consulting, the upcoming third round of bidding is also expected to be led by state-owned enterprises.
Kearney (Shanghai) Enterprise Management Consulting Co., Ltd. points out that China’s shale gas development faces challenges such as a long exploration cycle, limited experience, and high costs. The current development of winning bidders is not smooth. At present, China is still in the early stages of shale gas exploration, where the cost of drilling and fracturing per horizontal well ranges from 80 to 100 million yuan—significantly higher than both conventional oil and gas and U.S. shale gas operations.