Abstract Recently, with the gradual retreat of the “high fever” in the southern region, the steel market will usher in the peak season of “Golden Nine”, and the effective demand for downstream terminals will gradually be released. The entire steel market will maintain a stable and good running trend, and operators are optimistic. In the market outlook, it is believed that steel prices are unlikely to fall significantly. According to...
Recently, with the gradual retreat of the “high fever” in the southern region, the steel market will usher in the peak season of “Golden Nine”, and the effective demand for downstream terminals will gradually be released. The entire steel market will maintain a stable and good running trend, and operators are optimistic about the market outlook. Quotes, that steel prices are unlikely to fall significantly. According to the situation that the first-line salesmen at the forefront of the market feedback from the operation, in August, although most of the domestic regions continued to have high temperatures, the steel market in the off-season did not cool down, but instead showed “the off-season is not weak, the anti-season rose”. Quotes, although the price of construction steel market slowed down this week in mid-August, it was still rising slightly. The high-line price in Shanghai market still rose by RMB 70/ton from the previous week, and the price of rebar rose by RMB 40-50/ton. The national high-grade and third-grade rebar prices rose by an average of 50-60 yuan / ton. The prices of other types of plates generally fluctuated upwards. The prices of large and medium-sized profiles such as the work slot angles rose steadily, and the prices of structural steels rose slightly. The entire steel market continued to rise.


However, in the past week, the construction steel market price has stopped rising, with a slight correction. The national average price of high-line and rebar has dropped by RMB 20/ton from last week. The salesperson said that the current steel market operation characteristics and mentality: the demand increased slightly, the inventory continued to decline, the supply has been reduced, the steel mill continued to raise prices, business confidence boosted, optimistic about the "Golden Nine" market. In the middle and late August, the high temperatures have eased. This year, the high temperature days above 35 degrees in Shanghai reached 45 days, and the extreme temperatures reached 40.8 degrees, the highest in 141 years. The continuous high temperature has greatly affected the construction of open-air construction projects. Recently, the temperature has dropped and the construction of the project has accelerated. In addition, the investment in highways, railways, urban rail transit and infrastructure construction has increased, and a number of major projects have started intensively. According to the latest data released by the Ministry of Communications, the total fixed assets investment in the first seven months of this year was 751.186 billion yuan. If the local government invests 100 billion yuan in urban rail and intercity railways, the investment in railways and highways alone has exceeded one trillion in the first seven months of this year. As a result, the demand for steel will gradually increase, which is the biggest driving force to support the steady rise of steel prices. Steel mills overhaul, production capacity is controlled, steel market supply is reduced, and stocks are falling. Many steel mills have been scheduled to retreat in July, most of which are scheduled to be affected in the end of July and August. In addition, due to the limited electricity impact of some steel mills in Jiangsu Province, many production lines have experienced “intermittent” production cuts, and the output is significantly lower than the previous scheduling schedule.

In July, China's crude steel output was 65.47 million tons, and the average daily output of crude steel was 2,111.9 million tons, down 2.01% from the previous month, and fell for three consecutive months. According to the statistics of China Steel Association, the daily output of crude steel in key steel enterprises in the second half of July was 1.673 million tons, down 2.7% from the previous month. The national crude steel output was estimated at 2.084 million tons, down 2.2% from the previous month. Under the influence of the increase in national environmental protection and the increase in overhaul of some steel mills, the daily average production of crude steel in China has fallen for three consecutive months. Demand is generally better than expected, supply has declined, and supply and demand has improved in stages. The supply is reduced, the inventory is declining, and the sales pressure of steel traders is generally small. The data shows that the social stocks of the main varieties of steel in key cities in the country last Friday were 1,505,280 tons, down by 21.27 million tons from the previous week, and the social stock of steel products fell for 21 consecutive weeks.

According to the China Steel Association, the inventory of steel in key large and medium-sized enterprises in late July was 12.35 million tons, down 5.72% from the previous month, a new low since mid-February this year. At present, the spot resources owned by steel traders are generally not abundant. The phenomenon of shortage of goods and shortage of goods is very common. The steel is out of stock and the number of broken goods is increasing. The sales pressure of the merchants is not big, and it is not eager to sell, and it is even more unwilling to lower the price. The price follows the sales, and the sales volume increases as the sales volume increases. Steel mills continue to raise the ex-factory price and drive up the price of the spot market. Due to the rising prices of iron ore, scrap steel, pig iron, steel billet, coke and other steel raw materials, steel production costs have risen and pressure has increased. According to statistics, steel billets and imported mineral prices have risen recently. The price of imported ore has risen sharply by 9.8% in the first half of August, and the price of billet has also risen by 5.2%, significantly exceeding the 2.2% increase in steel prices during the same period.

Under this condition, steel mills have successively raised the ex-factory price of steel. Recently, Baosteel and Wuhan Iron and Steel have successively introduced the ex-factory price policy for September, and raised the ex-factory price of mainstream products such as hot-rolled and cold-rolled by 100-150 yuan/ton; The ex-factory price has also been raised overall. For example, the ex-factory price of some steel mills in Hebei is raised by 100-120 yuan/ton, and other steel mills that are closely priced at the market are generally raised by 20-80 yuan/ton. The ex-factory price of steel mills has been raised, which has become the driving force behind the steady increase in spot prices in the steel market. Operators predict that in the middle and late August and even in September, the domestic steel market will maintain a stable and good operating trend, and prices will continue to rise at a small rate, and there will be no obvious decline.

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