Abstract endless hot August weather, but this time Chinese PV companies but felt like a winter cold. Recently, the US Department of Commerce announced the preliminary ruling and found that there are dumping behaviors of crystalline silicon photovoltaic products imported from China and Taiwan. Among them, from mainland China...
The weather in August was very hot, but at this time it felt cold in winter for Chinese PV companies.

Recently, the US Department of Commerce announced the preliminary ruling and found that there are dumping behaviors of crystalline silicon photovoltaic products imported from China and Taiwan. Among them, products sold from the Chinese mainland to the United States will be subject to 26.33% to 58.87% anti-dumping duties; while products sold from Taiwan to the United States are subject to an anti-dumping duty of 27.59% to 44.18%.

This is the second time that the United States has launched a double-reverse investigation against Chinese PV companies. In order to cope with the last ruling, many mainland enterprises imported batteries and assembled components from Taiwan to export to the United States in order to bypass trade barriers. However, the Taiwan region is also in a hurry - the passage into the US market has been blocked.

According to the reporter's understanding, China's exports of photovoltaic products to the United States in 2013 were about 3GW, and according to the prediction of the Renewable Energy Society, the US market will install about 5-6GW this year. This round of US double-reaction will affect the export of Chinese PV companies. Nearly $3 billion, this will bring a new round of blows to Chinese PV companies that are in the midst of a recovery channel.

More loss

This time the US Department of Commerce is clearly prepared.

"This double-anti-existence makes it impossible for Taiwan to evade trade barriers. It is no longer necessary for mainland manufacturers to import batteries from Taiwan." Ding Wenlei, executive director of Air China Solar, told reporters.

Previously, because of the US double-reverse, mainland manufacturers slammed imports, Taiwan's photovoltaic companies took the opportunity, the new solar and other battery manufacturers soared in 2013, profits have doubled, but now these good times are gone.

According to the procedure, the US Department of Commerce will make an anti-dumping final ruling in December 2014, and the US International Trade Commission will make a final ruling in January 2015. If both of them make a positive ruling, US Customs will formally levy anti-dumping duties. According to a person from Wuxi Suntech, China's PV products are basically 15% cheaper than the local products in the United States, and today the high punitive tariffs will completely make Chinese PV products uncompetitive in the US market.

This has also caused the Chinese PV companies in the difficult recovery to encounter a “cold spring”.

By the beginning of March, the 2013 performance report disclosed by 20 A-share listed companies in the PV industry showed that the number of companies with performance growth reached 14, of which 9 companies with a turnaround in profitability and 6 companies with declining performance. In addition to the losses of Hareon Solar [-0.75% Fund Research Report], other companies have achieved profitability. This indicates that after more than two years of cold winter, PV companies are expected to recover for the first time.

One person from Artes said that the United States is growing into the world's third largest market after Europe and China. The future potential is unlimited. "It is now a good time to lay out in the United States. Losing this market means the future." Losing a chance for growth, so our attitude is not to abandon and not give up."

In addition to directly attacking Chinese PV companies, indirectly linking with Taiwanese battery companies, the US ruling even dampened the relevant industries in the country. A person from the PV industry association said that the two double-reverses in the United States and the double-reverse in the EU are SolarWorld. The company is behind the scenes. "This company is competing with Chinese companies in the market. It is already on the verge of bankruptcy. It has repeatedly joined other local SMEs to use the double-reverse to shut out Chinese companies, but this has already been the whole Industry opposition, including the US Solar Energy Association and downstream installers, has protested to the US government."

The above-mentioned person said that at present, more than 3GW of PV projects in the United States originally planned to use China's PV modules. Now, because the double-reverse will have to turn to other local companies at high prices, this will undoubtedly increase the cost of downstream power station investors and the PV parity for ordinary residents. Internet access has added obstacles. "The data shows that in the future, the US commercial and public PV project reserves have reached 50GW, but the double reverse has come one after another, this growth is likely to be interrupted, which is obviously a double-loss ending."

Therefore, the best result is that the two sides can reach an agreement to a certain extent. A person in charge of photovoltaics in Jiangsu said, “The current negotiations with the United States are mainly led by the government. The enterprises play a cooperative role. Now there is still a period of time from the arbitration. I hope that a settlement can be reached, or the quota system can be implemented in the same way as Europe. ."

Solve: Self-help or rescue?

Under the double threat of the United States, Chinese companies are also looking for other ways out.

Fan Zhenhua, special assistant and legal director of Yingli Green Energy, told this reporter that last year, the company’s exports to the United States accounted for 17% to 18% of total shipments. Therefore, the US’s double-reaction must have an impact, but it will not Too big, because these products can be sold to emerging markets, such as Southeast Asia, South America, Africa, etc. “We recently got a 300 MW project in Algeria.”

For the potential punitive tariff issue in the United States, it is reported that Artes has already prepared for the company's current production capacity in Canada to 500 megawatts, in order to avoid trade barriers, it is expected that the US market will account for sales in 2014. It is 20%.

But it is not so easy for latecomers to follow suit. “It’s too late to set up a factory in Canada to circumvent the US trade barriers like Artes. It has been operating in Canada for many years and has a deep foundation and a mature layout. It’s not only cost-effective for a typical company to build a factory in the US, time It’s too late.” A person from Wuxi Suntech said that the company had built a 30 MW factory in Phoenix, USA in 2011, but it has been shut down because of excessive costs and capital pressure.

Under the predicament of the US double-reverse, the weight of the development of the photovoltaic market in the domestic market is bound to increase. Nowadays, many PV companies have begun to build photovoltaic power plants in order to stimulate sales in the domestic market, and the resulting excess problems have become increasingly serious.

According to an industry source, the installed capacity of photovoltaics in China is about 10GW in 2013, about 13GW this year, and it can grow by 30%. “But behind these glamorous data, the survival of enterprises is very difficult, and the financing channels are narrow. And the arrears of subsidies have made many companies investing in photovoltaic power plants heavily indebted."

The above-mentioned Wuxi Shangde people said that the reason why the company entered bankruptcy and reorganization last year, in addition to the bank's bad debt caused by blind expansion, there is also a factor that the PV power plant it invests in has many bad debts that cannot be recovered, and some are defaulted by the purchaser. In the case of payment, some of the power stations that invested in the company have not received the subsidy for the price of electricity. "The subsidy of many companies is arrears for two or three years."

For many companies, investing in power plants is a last resort. A domestic PV manufacturer that did not want to be named said that the subsidies for the PV power plants they invested in have accumulated more than 500 million yuan in three years, which has seriously affected their company's cash flow and is miserable. "The problem is that you can't solve the inventory problem without investing in the PV power plant. A large number of components accumulate in the warehouse and depreciate every day. It is better to take the investment power station, but the investment also loses money. In short, no matter what you do, it is a loss."

Ding Wenlei pointed out that although the US double-reverse allows many companies to bet on the domestic market, the current investment in power plants still needs to clarify the following questions: What is the distributed business model? Can the financing channel be opened up? How does the value of the power station make the bank confirm? Can the on-grid approval process be unified across the country? Can subsidies be paid in time?

"Only by solving the above problems can we ensure the healthy development of the domestic market." Ding Wenlei said, "If the upstream and downstream do not come to a true integration and restructuring, the entire industry will not be able to enter a real recovery phase."

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