Abstract China's economic advantages and risks coexist in 2018. "Looking forward to the future, China's economy will continue to be stable and stable in 2018. It is conditional and confident. Of course, we are also clearly aware that the current international environment is still complicated and some outstanding problems of inadequate domestic development imbalance...

In 2018, China's economic advantages and risks coexist.

"Looking ahead, China's economy will continue to be stable and stable in 2018. It is conditional and confident. Of course, we are also clearly aware that the current international environment is still complicated and some outstanding problems of insufficient domestic development imbalance have yet to be resolved. The economic quality improvement, efficiency improvement and sustainable development have a long way to go, and still need to work hard." On January 22, Yan Pengcheng, a spokesperson for the National Development and Reform Commission, said in analyzing the economic situation in 2018.

At the press conference on the same day, he pointed out that in 2018, he will do his best to do eight key tasks, namely, continue to deepen supply-side structural reforms, further stimulate the vitality of various market players, and promote the sustained and healthy development of China's economy and society.

The National Bureau of Statistics announced the economic data for the whole year of 2017 last week. China's GDP grew by 6.9%, which is higher than the target of 6.5%. Many institutional analysts believe that China's economic target in 2018 may still be set at around 6.5%. It is understood that this year's economic goals are expected to be announced at the National Conference in March 2018.

Do eight key tasks

Yan Pengcheng, spokesman of the National Development and Reform Commission, pointed out that the international environment facing China in 2018 is still complicated, and it is still arduous to resolve some deep-seated structural contradictions and problems that have been accumulated in China for a long time.

To this end, in 2018, we will strive to achieve the overall tone of work, adhere to the new development concept, closely follow the major contradictions in our society, and in accordance with the requirements of high-quality development, we will resolutely lay the groundwork for preventing and defusing major risks, precision poverty alleviation, and pollution prevention. At the same time as the tough battle, we will do our best to do 8 key tasks.

This includes: continuing to deepen supply-side structural reforms, further stimulating the vitality of various market players, implementing rural revitalization strategies and regional coordinated development strategies, promoting the formation of a comprehensive new opening pattern, improving security and improving people's livelihood, and accelerating the establishment of multi-subject supply. The housing system of channel protection and rent-and-purchase will accelerate the construction of ecological civilization.

"In 2018, the National Development and Reform Commission will, in accordance with the requirements of the Party's 19th National Congress, "stay the bottom line of systemic financial risks," lay a good job in preventing and resolving major risks, and vigorously promote risk prevention." Yan Pengcheng's news on January 22 Said at the press conference.

According to the understanding, some of the above key tasks and some of the three major campaigns have already been implemented.

For example, the “Opinions on Further Promoting the Transformation and Upgrading of Mergers and Acquisitions of Coal Enterprises” jointly issued by the 12 National Committees of the National Development and Reform Commission recently proposed to clearly promote the integration of coal upstream and downstream industries through market-led, corporate entities and government support. Continuously increase industrial concentration and optimize productivity layout.

In the development of emerging industries, the NDRC publicly solicited opinions on the smart car innovation development strategy. At the same time, in order to strengthen the innovation of frontier technology fields such as “Internet+” and artificial intelligence, and accelerate the development of the digital economy, the National Development and Reform Commission implemented the “Internet+” in 2018. Major projects in the development of artificial intelligence innovation and the digital economy.

In terms of corporate bonds, the NDRC issued a notice request at the end of 2017. All localities, relevant central enterprises and registered custodians comprehensively sorted out the preparations for debt repayment of corporate bonds paid in 2018, and found out the credit risk base of corporate bonds.

The 21st Century Business Herald reporter learned that in 2018, in order to prevent financial risks, the goal of the broad money target (M2) balance growth rate may be only about 9%, which is about 3 percentage points lower than the previous year. Local debt, resident debt and corporate debt ratio will all be controlled.

Cao Yuanzheng, chief economist of BOC International Research, believes that this is necessary. He pointed out that the current economic route and timetable are clear, and the Chinese economy will shift from high speed to high quality development in the next three years. The most important thing in high-quality development is precision poverty alleviation, pollution prevention, and prevention of financial risks. It is good to put the economy on the track of sustainable development.

"The main thing is to prevent risks, remove the financial time bomb, and then you can leverage after the economy is stabilized."

This year's growth rate or a slight downturn

The economic goals of 2018, as well as employment, prices, broad money, investment, consumption, and deficits, are expected to be announced in reports on government work at the two sessions in 2018, as well as reports on national economic development and budget reports.

Many analysts believe that the economy is still under downward pressure in 2018, and the growth rate may be lower than that in 2017, so the target may still be set at around 6.5%.

On January 22, Li Qilin, managing director and chief macro researcher of Lianxun Securities, believes that the economy in 2018 will be slightly lower than the growth rate in 2017. The reason is that strict financial supervision has led to the fact that the financing cost of the entity has been pushed up to a certain extent, which may increase the investment cost. In addition, consumer loans may slow down due to financial supervision, which will affect consumption growth.

From a policy perspective, preventing financial risks in 2018, such as real estate loan control and local debt governance controls, may impact financing instruments. "But the new kinetic energy brought by high-end equipment manufacturing, the good performance of real estate sales-related industries, and the export promotion brought about by the recovery of overseas market demand will bring new impetus to the economy (310,328, fund)." Li Qilin said.

Yan Pengcheng pointed out that in 2017, the most important thing is to see the quality, efficiency and structure behind the growth rate, which has been significantly improved and improved compared with the past. In 2018, China will take the initiative to grasp the external opportunities of the slow recovery of the world economy. The import and export from the negative growth of the previous two years to the double-digit growth of 2017 has also helped the Chinese economy to stabilize and better than expected. .

According to the 21st Century Business Herald reporter, the contribution of China's net exports of goods and services to economic growth in 2017 was 9.1%, an increase of 18.7 percentage points over the previous year.

Shen Lisheng, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out that the growth rate of foreign trade in 2017 is very high. In 2018, there is a high base factor in the previous year. The actual net export contribution rate to the economy will decline, but the economy will achieve about 6.5% in 2018. The goal is not a big problem.

Shen Lisheng pointed out that in the long run, the total labor force in China will decline rapidly, and it may fall by tens of millions in the next few years. The corresponding labor cost will increase, and the degree of aging will increase, the number of people working will decrease, and the number of people receiving pensions will increase. Sustainability has an impact. "In this regard, the problem of low birth rate should be solved. In addition, the use rate of robots can be greatly improved to solve the problem of labor shortage." Shen Lisheng said.

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