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3% devaluation pressure release once
After falling for more than a thousand points in two consecutive days, yesterday, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar depreciated again at 1.11%, at 6.4010.
Zhang Xiaohui, assistant to the central bank governor, said that for some time, the central parity of the RMB has deviated significantly from the market exchange rate, which has affected the market benchmark status and authority of the middle price. According to market research and analysts' general estimates, this deviation is about 3% cumulative. After two days of adjustment, the RMB exchange rate gradually returned to the market level, and the accumulated depreciation pressure of about 3% was released once. The deviation correction has been basically completed.
From the perspective of the regulatory authorities, monetary easing has brought some depreciation pressure on the RMB exchange rate. Zhang Xiaohui said: "The loosening of liquidity during a period of time has promoted the rapid growth of money and credit, which has affected the supply and demand of the foreign exchange market and brought some depreciation pressure on the RMB exchange rate."
"Depreciation of 10% to promote exports" without basis
Yi Gang, deputy governor of the central bank and director of the foreign exchange bureau, said in response to a reporter's question: "As a managed floating exchange rate system, the equilibrium exchange rate of the renminbi is determined by the market. The central bank officials cannot make irresponsible remarks about the exchange rate. We are even more The focus is on the construction of the exchange rate formation mechanism. The so-called 'official request for a 10% depreciation to promote exports' is totally unfounded."
Yi Gang said: "China adopts a managed floating exchange rate system. When the market is volatile and the fluctuations exceed the tolerance interval, we still insist on management. The ultimate goal is to make the market supply and demand relationship play a decisive role in exchange rate pricing. The normal intervention of the exchange rate has been withdrawn, but there is still a 'rules of the game' limited to 2% per day."
RMB will enter the appreciation channel in the future
Zhang Xiaohui said: "In the process of returning the RMB intermediate price to the market in the past two days, the RMB exchange rate has been depreciated in the direction of depreciation, which has led to doubts about whether the RMB exchange rate will continue to depreciate. In my opinion, from the international Looking at the domestic economic and financial situation, there is currently no basis for the continued depreciation of the RMB exchange rate, and the central bank has the ability to maintain the basic stability of the RMB at a reasonable and balanced level."
Regarding the future trend of the renminbi, Zhang Xiaohui said that in the long run, the renminbi is still a strong currency. In the first seven months of this year, China’s trade surplus reached US$305.2 billion, which is an important basis for supporting the strengthening of the RMB exchange rate. From the perspective of the macro environment, the growth rate of 7% in the first half of the Chinese economy is still good in the world.
In addition, the fundamentals such as abundant foreign exchange reserves and good financial conditions determine that the RMB will enter the appreciation channel in the future when other factors and difficulties accumulated in the economy are corrected.
>> Three questions exchange rate 1 How much will the RMB depreciate?
Exchange rate is determined by market supply and demand
How much will the RMB fall in this round? In response to a reporter's question, Yi Gang said that as a managed floating exchange rate system, the equilibrium exchange rate of the renminbi is determined by the market.
However, Zhao Qingming [microblogging], a financial expert, believes that the exchange rate is only a small depreciation in stages, and there is no possibility of a sharp fall. He predicted that the renminbi or the lowest depreciation to the 6.50 mark. In the view of Li Huiyong, chief macro analyst of Shen Wan Hongyuan, the depreciation of this round will not exceed 10%, basically within 6.7.
2 How long will the devaluation last?
There is currently no basis for continuous depreciation
Regarding whether the renminbi will continue to depreciate, Zhang Xiaohui said: "My answer is that from the perspective of international and domestic economic and financial situations, there is currently no basis for the continued depreciation of the RMB exchange rate."
Huang Yiping, a member of the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee and vice president of the National Development Research Institute of Peking University, said that from the fundamentals of the economy, there are no factors that cause the RMB to be long-term, sustained, and depreciated. Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of Communications, said that because the exchange rate volatility is still there, and the overall Chinese economy is still stable, the renminbi will not continue to depreciate.
3 Is there a capital outflow?
Capital inflows and outflows are balanced
Some analysts said that they should be alert to the capital flight caused by the expected depreciation of the RMB exchange rate.
In response to this question, Yi Gang said that official monitoring shows that China's capital inflows and outflows should be balanced. As for the recent decline in foreign exchange reserves, Yi Gang said that this was due to the increase in foreign exchange held by residents and enterprises and the increase in foreign investment by enterprises.
In an interview with the media, Huang Yiping said that as long as the Chinese economy does not have major problems, there will be no large-scale capital flight.
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Abstract The central bank held a press conference on August 13 to answer hot issues such as the recent RMB exchange rate. The central bank believes that the 3% depreciation pressure of the RMB has been released once, and the regulatory authorities can stabilize the RMB foreign exchange equilibrium, reaffirming that there is no continuous depreciation basis for the RMB, emphasizing the future of the RMB...
The central bank held a press conference on August 13 to answer hot issues such as the recent RMB exchange rate. The central bank believes that the 3% depreciation pressure of the RMB has been released at one time. The regulatory authorities can stabilize the RMB foreign exchange equilibrium, reaffirm that there is no continuous depreciation basis for the RMB, and emphasize that the RMB will enter the appreciation channel in the future.