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**Abstract**
Polysilicon is a fundamental material in both the electronics and photovoltaic industries. In recent years, driven by the rapid growth of the global semiconductor and solar cell sectors, the polysilicon market has experienced significant expansion. However, the imbalance between supply and demand has become increasingly evident, drawing widespread attention globally.
As energy demands rise and environmental concerns intensify, renewable energy sources have gained greater importance. Solar energy, in particular, has become a crucial component of national sustainable development strategies. Currently, China’s renewable energy accounts for only 8%, indicating substantial room for future growth. The solar industry has made remarkable progress in research, industrialization, and market development, with the solar cell sector emerging as one of the fastest-growing and most promising industries worldwide.
The solar cell market still holds immense potential. By 2006, cumulative global photovoltaic installations surpassed 8 GW, and investments in solar cell manufacturing exceeded $1 billion. According to EPIA forecasts, the global photovoltaic industry was expected to grow at an annual rate of 27% before 2009, reaching 34% from 2010 to 2020. By 2010, global annual installed capacity was projected to reach 11.34 GW, with significant contributions from Japan, Europe, the U.S., and Other regions.
Currently, the global solar cell market is dominated by large international players, particularly from Japan and Europe. However, Chinese companies like Wuxi Suntech, Nanjing CLP, and Taiwan Modi have made notable strides, entering the top ten in terms of production. Since 2005, the global solar cell market has faced shortages, largely due to strong international demand, especially in Europe. This has created significant growth opportunities for China's photovoltaic industry, with companies such as Wuxi Suntech, Zhongdian Electric, and others rapidly expanding their production capacities and improving technological capabilities.
Despite this progress, China's solar cell industry still faces several challenges. First, there is a shortage of raw materials, with over 90% of silicon imports required, leading to high costs and underutilized production capacity. Second, the domestic market lags behind the fast-growing industry, creating a mismatch. Third, China's solar industry started later, with weaknesses in equipment, technology, and talent. Fourth, while the "Renewable Energy Law" has been implemented, supporting policies remain insufficient. Additionally, product quality varies, and many enterprises are following trends, risking overinvestment and instability in the industry.
The demand for polysilicon is expected to continue growing. Polysilicon is primarily used in semiconductors and solar cells, with two main grades: electronic and solar grade. Due to the rapid development of these industries, especially solar cells, the polysilicon market has expanded quickly. In 2006, global solar cell production reached 2,521 MW, consuming approximately 23,000 tons of polysilicon, accounting for about 50% of total demand. With an annual output of 37,000 tons, the market gap was around 8,000 tons, and the gap would be even larger if calculated based on current solar cell capacity.
International polysilicon producers have responded to the supply shortage by expanding production. Companies like Hemlock (U.S.), Wacker (Germany), MEMC (U.S.), and Deshan (Japan) have invested heavily in new facilities. Meanwhile, new entrants such as Korea’s DC Chemical, Hoku (Hawaii), Isofoton (Spain), and others are also entering the market with innovative technologies. These developments are expected to ease the global supply-demand imbalance after 2008, with polysilicon prices likely to decline as capacity increases.
China’s integrated circuit and solar cell industries have significantly boosted polysilicon demand. From 2001 to 2006, China’s IC polysilicon demand grew at an average of 14.9% annually, while solar cell production increased by 157%. Over six years, both production and demand for polysilicon surged by over 110 times. In 2006, domestic polysilicon consumption reached nearly 5,000 tons, but domestic production was only 287 tons, highlighting a major supply gap.
The rapid growth of the solar industry has led to tight polysilicon supplies, with most solar cell companies operating at only 30–40% capacity. This has caused sharp price increases, encouraging domestic investment and expansion.
Domestically, several companies have begun or expanded polysilicon projects. For example, Luoyang Zhongsi High-Tech expanded its 700-ton line and launched a 300-ton project in 2005. Sichuan Xinguang built a 1,260-ton plant, while峨嵋 Semiconductor Materials Factory started a 500-ton project. Other companies, including Daquan Group, Jiangsu Zhongneng, and Chongqing Chemical Medical Holding, have also initiated large-scale polysilicon projects.
Additionally, many other companies are planning or constructing new polysilicon lines, using Siemens technology to produce high-purity silicon materials. Research into low-cost, large-scale production methods is also advancing, with companies like Fangcheng Xuntianyu and Jinzhou New Century Quartz Glass making breakthroughs in producing solar-grade polysilicon.
With continued investment and innovation, China's polysilicon industry is poised for further growth, addressing supply gaps and strengthening its position in the global market.