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"Because the introduction of the real estate regulation policy 'National Five Articles' has brought certain uncertainty to economic growth and the monetary policy neutrality brought about by the decline in M2 growth rate, we expect GDP growth will be released in the second half of this year. Slowly, according to the CCWE model, the GDP growth rate in the first quarter is expected to be 8.2%, which is 7.9% for the whole year.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to February 2013, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 378 billion yuan, a nominal increase of 12.3% year-on-year, a sharp drop of 2.9 percentage points from the growth rate in December last year, and the growth rate was lower than that of any previous month.
The report pointed out that from January to February each year, the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods will have a certain degree of seasonal reduction, but unlike in previous years, the growth rate of food consumption in the first two months of this year has declined significantly.
Although consumption has been suppressed, the inflation situation this year is not optimistic. According to the CCWE report, although 3.2% of CPI in February is mainly affected by seasonal factors, it is not enough in the short term, but the acceleration of urbanization will push up the price of steel and cement, the monetary easing in the international market, and the pressure of imported inflation and pigs. Affecting the impact of pork prices and other factors, a new round of price increase cycle has been formed. Starting from the second half of the year, the monthly inflation rate will exceed 4%, and the annual average inflation will reach 3.62%, slightly exceeding the regulation target of 3.5% this year.
Director of CCWE Li Daokui said that the current foreign trade export situation is more optimistic, but it is mainly affected by the short-term rebound of the European and American economies, and the impact on domestic economic growth is not significant. China's economy is in a short-term downside risk, and there is pressure for structural adjustment in the medium term. These risks need reforms to promote. If the new government promotes reforms in a timely manner, the Chinese economy may still open a new growth cycle.
Abstract Tsinghua University, China and World Economy Research Center (CCWE) has announced the second quarter of this year macroeconomic forecast report pointed out that the New Deal affected by factors such as real estate, starting from the second quarter of this year, China's economy since the second half of last year's upward trend is about to change , the first quarter G...
Tsinghua University China and World Economic Research Center (CCWE) recently announced that the second quarter of this year's macroeconomic forecast report pointed out that due to factors such as the new real estate policy, from the second quarter of this year, the upward trend of the Chinese economy since the second half of last year is about to change. The GDP growth rate in the first quarter is expected to reach 8.2%, but the economic growth rate may fall from the second quarter, and inflation pressure will heat up in the second half of the year. The monthly CPI rise is likely to exceed 4%.