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In 2012, the domestic electrolytic aluminum market faced significant downward pressure due to a slowdown in macroeconomic growth and increasing supply-side challenges. Shanghai Aluminum prices, which started the year around 16,000 yuan per ton, dropped to 15,000 yuan per ton, signaling a trend that was far from over. Looking ahead to 2013, the outlook for Shanghai Aluminum remains bearish, with continued supply pressures and high inventory levels.
One of the key factors contributing to the rising supply pressure was the introduction of "subsidy price" policies by several regions in May 2012, which encouraged increased production. Additionally, the steady release of new production capacity in Xinjiang further exacerbated the imbalance between supply and demand. Despite being an off-season for consumption, electrolytic aluminum production remained robust, leading to a sharp rise in inventory levels.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to November 2012, cumulative electrolytic aluminum output reached 18.15 million tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 12.24%. The last two months alone saw outputs of 1.72 million and 1.64 million tons, both exceeding a 20% year-on-year growth rate. This surge in supply, combined with weaker downstream demand, led to persistently high inventory levels across the country.
Although there was a brief period of destocking in March to May, this was driven by falling prices below production costs for some producers in Henan and Shandong. However, the implementation of preferential electricity tariffs in Henan, Guangxi, and Guizhou, particularly with subsidies exceeding 1,000 yuan per ton, reignited production activity. By August, the release of new capacity in Xinjiang pushed inventories even higher, with Shanghai Aluminum stocks reaching as high as 460,000 tons and total social stocks in four major regions approaching 1 million tons.
Downstream demand also played a critical role in shaping the market. While China’s total aluminum output for January–November 2012 rose by 14% year-on-year, it was significantly lower than the 28% growth seen in the same period in 2011. Real estate investment slowed due to government regulations, but signs of stabilization emerged after May as monetary policy eased. Although real estate regulation is expected to continue, the long-term supply-demand imbalance suggests that housing prices will remain stable or even rise in 2013. The construction of 6 million affordable housing units may provide some relief to aluminum demand in the sector.
In the automotive industry, production and sales initially declined in the first quarter of 2012 but rebounded in the second half. From January to November, both production and sales grew slightly, up 4.5% and 4.0%, respectively. For 2013, while industry policies may not offer much support, economic growth slowdowns could limit car consumption. However, inflationary pressures might provide some cushion, with car sales expected to grow by about 8%.
The home appliance market, after years of rapid expansion under the "Home Appliances to the Countryside" policy, has now reached a saturation point. Although the government introduced energy-saving subsidies and special programs for small appliances, their impact has been limited so far, and the market's growth potential remains constrained.
In summary, the domestic bauxite and alumina supply chain still faces risks in 2013, and electrolytic aluminum supply will remain under pressure. With high inventory levels and weak demand, the outlook for Shanghai Aluminum in 2013 is not positive. It is expected that the price range will stay between 13,500 and 16,000 yuan per ton, with downside risks concentrated in the first and third quarters.