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In 2012, Shanghai Aluminum faced significant downward pressure due to the slowdown in China’s macroeconomic growth and increasing supply-side challenges. The price of aluminum dropped from around 16,000 yuan/ton at the start of the year to 15,000 yuan/ton, but this was far from the end of the trend. Looking ahead to 2013, further declines are expected as supply continues to outpace demand.
One of the main factors behind the rising supply pressure is the introduction of “subsidy price†policies in several regions starting in May 2012. Additionally, the continuous expansion of electrolytic aluminum production capacity in Xinjiang has contributed to an oversupply. Despite being an off-season for consumption, domestic production remained robust, with output reaching 18.15 million tons from January to November—up 12.24% year-on-year. In the last two months alone, production exceeded 1.7 million tons each month, showing a strong growth rate above 20%.
High inventory levels have also been a major concern. Although there was a period of destocking in March to May due to prices falling below production costs in some regions, this trend reversed after June when preferential electricity tariffs and subsidies were introduced in Henan, Guangxi, and Guizhou. These policies boosted production again, leading to a sharp rise in inventories. By August, increased production from Xinjiang pushed stocks even higher. Currently, Shanghai Aluminum inventory has reached 460,000 tons, while social inventories across four key cities are approaching 1 million tons. This high stock level is expected to continue pressuring aluminum prices in 2013.
Downstream demand has not kept up with the rapid increase in supply. While China’s total aluminum output from January to November grew by 14% compared to 2011, it was still lower than the previous year's 28% growth. Real estate investment, a major driver of aluminum demand, slowed down due to government regulations. However, signs of stabilization emerged in the second half of 2012 as monetary policy eased. It is expected that real estate activity will gradually recover in 2013, although regulatory measures will remain tight. With the construction of 6 million affordable housing units planned, aluminum demand in the sector may see some relief.
The automotive industry showed mixed performance in 2012, with negative growth in the first quarter but a rebound in the second half. From January to November, car production and sales increased slightly by 4.5% and 4.0%, respectively. For 2013, industry policies may not provide much support, and slowing economic growth could limit vehicle purchases. However, inflation might help sustain demand, with car sales expected to grow by about 8% in 2013.
The household appliance market, which had seen explosive growth under the "Home Appliances to the Countryside" policy, is now saturated. While the government announced new energy-saving subsidies, the impact has yet to be significant. Consumption potential remains limited.
In summary, the domestic bauxite and alumina supply faces risks in 2013, and electrolytic aluminum supply will remain under pressure. Combined with high inventory levels, the outlook for Shanghai Aluminum in 2013 is not optimistic. Prices are expected to trend lower throughout the year, staying within the range of 13,500–16,000 yuan/ton. The biggest downside risks are likely to occur in the first and third quarters.