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According to a recent report released by the Steel Logistics Professional Committee of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the domestic steel industry PMI index for May stood at 46.8%, marking an increase of 1.7 percentage points from April. This is the second consecutive month of growth, yet it remains below the 50% threshold for the third month in a row, signaling continued weakness in the sector.
Steel production levels remain robust. The production index for May reached 49.0%, up 4.1 percentage points from the previous month. Additionally, procurement activities related to production have also rebounded, with raw material inventory levels rising. These trends suggest that steel procurement and manufacturing are still active. According to the latest data from the China Iron and Steel Association, the average daily crude steel output in mid-May was 2.1854 million tons, slightly down by 0.35% compared to early May but still among the highest in history. In the short term, steel mills are not expected to significantly cut back on production, meaning high crude steel output is likely to persist.
While there is a slight improvement in market demand, it remains modest. The new orders index rose by 2 percentage points to 45.2% in May, following two months of decline. However, as May came to an end, demand began to weaken again, suggesting the peak season has passed. With summer heat and rainy seasons approaching in June, domestic consumption is expected to slow down further, which could limit the recovery of end-user demand. Given the high production levels, rising steel inventories may continue to pressure the market, potentially leading to a rebound in stock levels later this year.
Throughout May, iron ore prices, including imported ores, remained under downward pressure after a brief period of consolidation. Domestic steel mills’ aggressive selling of long-term contracts pushed iron ore prices lower. On May 31, the Platts 62% Australian iron ore index fell to $109.75 per ton, down sharply from the annual high of $158 per ton. Although iron ore prices have hit a yearly low, trading remains weak, with both price and demand showing signs of stagnation.
Overall, despite falling raw material costs, steel mills have not reduced their production efforts, and both societal and mill inventories remain elevated. If production capacity and output are not properly managed, the limited demand improvements may not be enough to offset the oversupply. This has created a strong upward trend in the steel market. While steel prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term, some positive developments are gradually building up in the sector.