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On September 16, the Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China released a preliminary ruling announcement. Starting from September 20, temporary anti-subsidy measures in the form of deposit margins have been imposed on solar-grade polysilicon imported from the United States. This marks the second round of punitive actions by China following its initial anti-dumping investigation, effectively launching the so-called "double anti" measures against U.S. polysilicon.
This is the first time that the Chinese government has issued a preliminary decision to impose temporary countervailing duties on imported polysilicon from the U.S. According to the official notice, after conducting an investigation, it was determined that the U.S.-originated solar-grade polysilicon contains subsidies, which have caused significant harm to China’s domestic polysilicon industry. As a result, the State Council’s Customs Tariff Commission decided to implement temporary anti-subsidy measures as of September 20, 2013, with a 6.5% deposit margin applied to companies such as Hemlock and AE.
Prior to this, China had already imposed a temporary anti-dumping duty ranging from 53.3% to 57% on U.S. polysilicon. With the implementation of the new countervailing measures, China’s “double anti†sanctions against U.S. polysilicon are now fully in effect.
It’s important to note that last year, the U.S. had also imposed a "double anti" duty on Chinese crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells and components, with anti-dumping rates ranging from 18.32% to 249.96%, and countervailing duties between 14.78% and 15.79%. In comparison, the U.S. measures were much more severe.
Industry insiders suggest that this move is not only a strategic response but also a way for the Chinese government and enterprises to boost market confidence. At the same time, it serves as a warning to many U.S. and South Korean companies exporting polysilicon to China.
China’s import pattern for polysilicon remains difficult to change. The combined impact of anti-dumping and anti-subsidy measures will likely affect U.S. exports to China. According to data from the China Investment Consulting Industry Research Center, since July, the U.S. market share in China fell by 7%, falling behind South Korea and Germany. With the new anti-subsidy measures, the U.S. market share is expected to decline further, possibly by up to 10%.
The "double anti" tariffs will increase the cost of U.S. polysilicon in the Chinese market, which benefits domestic producers. Zhu Weihua from the Guangdong Photovoltaic Industry Alliance pointed out that these measures weaken the price advantage of American products, giving domestic companies a better chance to capture more market share. Additionally, it may encourage a shift in demand toward locally produced polysilicon.
While the price increase affects upstream suppliers, downstream companies have flexibility. Yao Wenjie, technical director at Dongguan CSG Photovoltaic Technology Co., Ltd., noted that although the cost of silicon materials may rise, their company can source from other countries or use domestic alternatives without significantly impacting production costs.
Despite the U.S. facing increased scrutiny, the overall import pattern from South Korea, Germany, and the U.S. remains largely unchanged. Ren Haoning from China Investment Consulting analyzed that while the U.S. market share declined, it is likely to be replaced by other suppliers. The fundamental structure of China’s polysilicon import market is unlikely to shift dramatically.
Experts believe that the long-term solution lies in promoting industry consolidation. Zheng Lepeng from the Guangdong Solar Energy Association emphasized that key players like South Korea’s OCI and Germany’s Wacker remain major buyers of Chinese polysilicon. To strengthen the domestic industry, the government should focus on supporting large enterprises and encouraging mergers and acquisitions among smaller firms.
In the short term, the "double anti" measures may lead to higher polysilicon prices, but the outlook for the domestic PV market is positive. Hongyuan Securities’ research suggests that policy support in the fourth quarter could drive a significant increase in demand, potentially doubling the volume compared to the first half of the year.
Ultimately, while market expansion can boost confidence, the government must guide the industry carefully. Ren Haoning suggested that more aggressive policies might be necessary to help the sector consolidate and eliminate inefficient producers, ultimately creating a stronger, more sustainable polysilicon industry in China.