CEC predicts that due to the superposition of factors such as the arrival of water, electricity coal, installed capacity, and strong demand for electricity from the society, in the winter and next spring, power supply and demand will remain tight in some parts of the country. It is expected that electricity consumption will increase by 13% in the fourth quarter of this year. Around the year, the entire society used 4.7 trillion kwh electricity, an increase of 12% year-on-year, and the largest power gap in the country this winter and next spring is 30 million to 40 million kilowatts.
Due to the impact of coal prices, the degree of loss of coal-fired power generation enterprises has been deepening, and the unit's coal shortages, downtime, and unplanned outages have been prominent. Even the traditional coal-fired provinces such as Shanxi and Guizhou provinces have coal-fired power stations joined in the ranks of coal-mining shutdowns. In many thermal power companies, the cost of coal has risen from more than 50% of operating costs to more than 70%.
The data released by the CEC also shows that thermal power companies in the central and northeastern provinces still suffer large losses. From January to August, the electric power industry's sales profit margin was 3.5% (including thermal power business sales profit ratio was only 1.5%), which was the lowest among all major upstream and downstream industries. The weak profitability and low return rate have affected the power industry. Secure supply and sustainable development capabilities.
At present, in order to ensure the supply of coal within the province and ensure the normal operation of the province's power generation enterprises, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Henan, Chongqing, and Guizhou provinces have formulated a series of policies to limit the export of coal to the province and support the power companies to generate electricity. The reform of the marketization of coal and electricity trading has seen a regression.
Li Chaolin, a coal expert, believes that the coal-electricity dispute may be further intensified, and coal and power industry competition for coal resources may be further exacerbated. Coal trading will also be subject to various forms of restricted trading and procurement of coal to implement price subsidies, etc. The market-oriented reform of coal trading has the potential to go back.
The relevant person of CEC also stated that if the price of Qinhuangdao coal continues to climb, there will be no profitability of large numbers of power plants, and the dilemma of increasing losses will be deeper and deeper. The power generation companies will have insufficient funds and difficulties in operation. They will have no money to purchase coal, and their enthusiasm for power generation will be seriously frustrated. Tensions may become more frequent and more severe.
In response to the proposal of the China Electricity Council to start the coal-electricity linkage mechanism on schedule to increase electricity prices, an industry expert who is close to the National Energy Administration believes that it is more feasible for the state to increase subsidies for power plants in the short-term because of April and June of this year. The National Development and Reform Commission has already adjusted the Internet prices and sales prices in some provinces.
As domestic thermal coal prices continue to climb, the supply and demand tensions starting from this spring will run through the full year of 2011. The industry expects that there will be no timetable for electricity price adjustment, but the government may increase its subsidies for power plants.