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According to the International Copper Research Group, global copper concentrate production capacity has been growing steadily since 2013, with a year-on-year increase of 5%. By 2015, this growth rate surged to 11.5%, leading to a significant rise in copper supply. This oversupply has started to impact market dynamics, especially in major consuming regions like China.
As China's copper industry continues to expand, the pressure on supply has eased. While copper investment saw a slight decline, output remained robust. Data from January to November showed that fixed asset investment in the non-ferrous metal mining sector rose by 20.63% compared to the same period last year, reaching 136.965 billion yuan. It’s projected that China’s copper production will hit 1.7 million tons in 2012, representing a 30.9% year-on-year increase.
Despite abundant overseas copper resources, domestic reserves remain limited, making China highly dependent on imports. In October 2012, copper imports reached 715,700 tons, and were expected to climb to 750,000 tons in November. As a result, the share of domestic copper mines in total supply dropped to 18.3%, keeping the self-sufficiency rate low.
The surplus of raw materials has led to higher processing fees for copper concentrates. In 2013, smelters had no shortage of raw materials, and their production capacity kept expanding. The rising processing fees indicate both an ample supply of ore and lower costs for smelting companies. In 2012, the long-term processing fee for copper concentrates was between $60 and $63.5 per ton, up 12.4% from $56.5 per ton in 2011. It’s expected that the processing cost will rise by 20% in 2013, reaching $70 per ton.
Looking at refined copper production, China’s output keeps breaking records. In November 2012, refined copper production hit a record high of 531,000 tons, up 11.6% from the previous year. December's output is estimated at 550,000 tons, pushing the annual total for 2012 to around 5.98 million tons. This trend highlights the strong momentum in China's copper refining sector, which is expected to continue in 2013 as production capacity surpasses the previous year's levels.