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Experts believe that although the real economy still lacks upward endogenous motivation in a short period of time, the principle of “stability and continuity†must be implemented in the grasp of the direction and intensity of macroeconomic policies in the fourth quarter. Policy easing is imperative.
Investing in this "carriage" has been a bit slow since July.
The decline in real estate investment data has narrowed, but the situation is still not optimistic. In the view of Zhu Zhenxin, a macro analyst of Minsheng Securities, although from the demand side, national real estate sales have continued to pick up since the second quarter, but due to high inventory, sales can not be effectively transmitted to the investment side, the enthusiasm of housing enterprises to start work is not high.
In terms of total investment, manufacturing investment increased by 8.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate was the same as that in January-September. From a structural point of view, both equipment manufacturing investment and high-tech manufacturing investment have accelerated, respectively, which are 2.1 and 4.3 percentage points higher than the growth rate of all manufacturing investment. In contrast, the growth rate of investment in high-energy manufacturing industry fell at a low level, which was 7.5 percentage points lower than the growth rate of all manufacturing investment.
“Corresponding to the optimization of manufacturing investment structure in fixed asset investment, the structure of industrial production has also undergone a benign transformation.†Zhang Jun, chief economist of Morgan Stanley Huaxin Securities, told the Shanghai Securities Journal, but the growth rate of industrial production The continued decline reflects that the weak demand has not changed.
The growth rate of infrastructure investment was lower than the social expectation, and the investment in road and railway transportation industry continued to decline due to the rapid growth in the same period last year. Zhu Zhenxin believes that investment still depends on infrastructure. The key to future infrastructure construction to become a stable investment is to improve the financing environment.
Although the investment data is not optimistic, the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in October continued to increase slightly, up 0.1 percentage point to 11%. Food and beverage consumption rebounded sharply, and consumption rigidity promoted steady growth in consumption of basic lifestyle goods.
The economy continues to decline, and the market is expected to continue to heat up the steady growth policy.
Zhang Jun said that in view of the “three-phase superposition†of the domestic economy and the weak domestic demand, it is particularly important to maintain the stability and continuity of macroeconomic policies. The “positive fiscal policy†will continue to play the core of the stable growth policy portfolio. Role, while monetary policy will continue to work with fiscal policy through a combination of interest rate cuts and other monetary policy instruments under a sound tone.
Zhu Zhenxin also believes that exports are negative, industrial, investment, and consumption are sluggish, and steady growth points to new easing. In addition to the wide currency, it is necessary to make a wide fiscal, so that the positive fiscal policy is truly "positive". First, it is necessary to increase expenditures, mainly by revitalizing the stock (previously depositing financial funds to the entity) + using financial capital plus leverage (special debt and Downgrade fixed asset capital) + social capital plus leverage (continue to accelerate PPP); second, continue to reduce taxation and stimulate the potential of corporate investment and household consumption.
"In the fourth quarter, we must follow the principle of "stability and continuity" in the grasp of the direction and strength of macroeconomic policies, with a view to the first year of the next year of the "13th Five-Year Plan"." Zhang Jun said.
Abstract The National Bureau of Statistics announced the main economic indicators in October yesterday. The industrial added value in October increased by 5.6% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.1 percentage points from September. From January to October, the cumulative growth rate of investment was 10.2%, which was 0.1 percentage points lower than the growth rate of the previous nine months...
The National Bureau of Statistics announced the main economic indicators in October yesterday, of which industrial added value increased by 5.6% in October, and the growth rate dropped by 0.1 percentage points from September. From January to October, the cumulative growth rate of investment was 10.2%, which was 0.1 percentage points lower than the growth rate of the previous nine months. But the highlights are still flashing: the growth of manufacturing investment has ended for four consecutive months, and consumption rigidity has driven steady growth in consumption of basic lifestyle goods.