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Recently, China's polypropylene market has risen and fallen. It can be seen that under the guidance of a clear direction in the market, futures finance has an increasing influence on the plastic spot market. Of course, it is also inseparable from the impact of fundamental supply and demand. In the second half of this year, the polypropylene market failed to rise as it did last year. The “Golden September and Silver 10†did not prosper. After the winter, the market was gradually flattering. So in the last month of 2017, how is the polypropylene market breaking the deadlock?
        Domestic polypropylene market ups and downs in November
From the above table analysis, the domestic raw material price of polypropylene in November is mostly in an upward trend, the largest increase is injection molding, followed by fiber and wire drawing. This month, the domestic PP market was first suppressed and then raised, and the price was high and volatile, but the market turned weaker at the end of the month.
According to relevant statistics: on November 30 (Thursday), the domestic PP price index was 97.93 points, down 4.14% from the highest point of the cycle of 102.16 points (2017-09-06), compared with the lowest point of 2017 at 82.02 points (May 12) ) rose 19.40%. (Note: Period refers to 2017-01-01 to present)
Supply side of influencing factors
In November, the domestic polypropylene equipment maintenance loss was about 186,000 tons, a decrease of 62,600 tons from the 248,600 tons in October, down by 25.18%. With the early parking and maintenance devices driving in succession, as well as the Shenhua Ningmei Phase II, Yuntianhua and Qinghai Salt Lake new installations, the products will be further intensified, and the concentrated supply of production capacity will be concentrated in December. On the whole, the market supply will gradually increase, and the market supply and demand will gradually intensify under the premise that demand will not change significantly in the short term.
International crude oil futures
International oil prices fluctuated this month, hitting a new high in the past two years. As of Thursday (November 30), WTI January crude oil futures closed up 0.17% at $57.40 a barrel. Brent January crude oil futures closed up 0.73% at $63.57 a barrel. OPEC and 10 non-OPEC oil producers including Russia agreed to continue production cuts for nine months and extended the production reduction agreement to the end of 2018. Analysts believe that this decision will directly affect the future international crude oil supply and demand balance and price trend, OPEC The battle for pricing power with crude oil in shale oil producing countries will also be in a protracted war.
Futures factor
In November, the PP main contract 1801 contracted and oscillated, with an overall increase of 187 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.15%. At the beginning of the month, supported by the continuous rise in international oil prices, the PP1801 contract rose to a maximum of 9346 yuan / ton, and then gradually fell until the end of the month, the big diving dropped to a minimum of 8652 yuan / ton. The current PP main contract has been transferred from 1801 to 1805.
Downstream demand for influencing factors
In November, the operating rate of major domestic polypropylene downstream companies declined slightly, and the current operating rate is around 58%. Among them, the operating rate of the plastic knitting industry is 63%, the operating rate of BOPP is 63%, and the operating rate of copolymer injection is 49%. Affected by the strict investigation of environmental protection in winter, some plastic enterprises are facing production stoppages and production restrictions. Some enterprises are de-loading production, and the high price of raw materials restricts the willingness of manufacturers to stock up, which inhibits downstream demand to a certain extent.