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According to the International Copper Research Group, global copper concentrate production capacity has seen steady growth since 2013, with an annual increase of 5%. By 2015, this growth rate surged to 11.5%, leading to a significant expansion in copper supply. This surplus has started to impact market dynamics, especially in major consuming regions like China.
As China's copper industry continues to grow, the pressure on supply has eased. While copper investment slightly declined, output remained strong. Data from January to November showed that fixed asset investment in the non-ferrous metal mining sector increased by 20.63% compared to the same period last year, reaching 136.965 billion yuan. In 2012, China's copper production was expected to approach 1.7 million tons, reflecting a 30.9% year-on-year increase.
Despite abundant overseas copper resources, China still relies heavily on foreign imports due to limited domestic reserves. In October 2012, copper imports reached 715,700 tons, and were projected to rise to 750,000 tons in November. This led to a drop in the share of domestic copper mines in the overall supply to 18.3%, keeping the self-sufficiency rate low.
The oversupply of raw materials has driven up processing fees for copper concentrates. In 2013, smelters had no shortage of copper ore, and their production capacities continued to expand. The rise in processing fees indicates both a strong supply of copper ore and lower smelting costs. In 2012, the long-term processing fee for copper concentrates ranged between $60 and $63.5 per ton, a 12.4% increase from 2011’s $56.5 per ton. It is expected that the processing fee will jump by 20% in 2013, reaching $70 per ton.
Looking ahead, China's refined copper production is also on the rise. In November 2012, refined copper output hit a record high of 531,000 tons, up 11.6% year-on-year. December's output is estimated to reach 550,000 tons, pushing the total annual production for 2012 to around 5.98 million tons. This trend suggests that the peak of domestic copper smelting activity is likely to continue into 2013, with production capacity possibly surpassing that of the previous year.